WHY THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE?
The future is fundamentally uncertain, yet there are discernable directions,
even if signs point to conflicting and multiple outcomes. For some,
uncertainty justifies not thinking about the future, while for others
the uncertainty is a source of opportunity. Without a concerted effort
to be future-focused, organizations run grave risks of diminished
importance or even oblivion in the fluctuating world of the early
21st century. Thinking about the future increases the likelihood of
success in the long run.
All of our experience is with the past, but all of our decisions are
about the future.
Many people have assumed that their past experience is a fairly reliable
guide to the futurethe future will simply be a bigger and better
version of the world with which they are familiar. However, the pace
of change now makes it clear to thoughtful people that continuity
can no longer be taken for granted. In area after area today, we are
confronted by true uncertainty: we really do not know what will happen,
but we know it is going to happen more quickly.
The future cannot be predicted. The word futures in futures
studies is plural because there is no one preordained future that
is fated to occur. Rather, there are many different possible alternative
futures. Instead of predicting what the future will be, futurists
use a wide range of methodologies to engage in structured and thoughtful
speculation about future possibilities. This helps people prepare
for whatever future comes, and positions them to be more able to create
the future they prefer. Some of the methods futurists use to help
organizations think about the future follow.
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